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As
the world’s population increases, this is even more true for
its percentage of the elderly. This is bringing on whole new sets of
societal concerns.
No country escapes these demographic pressures. While it is true that these problems
impact in different ways in different countries in different areas of the world,
there is no escaping their universality.
In China, as has been noted, with a rapidly aging population, special laws have
been adopted to enforce the historical Chinese custom of the younger people providing
homes for their aging parents. This is particularly needed, as China has no national
social security, as do the United States and Europe.
In another aging Asian country, Japan, the emphasis is on keeping an aging population
employed more years by raising the retirement age. This approach is said to fit
well with the propensity of the Japanese to always want to be meaningfully employed.
And this also fits into the national reluctance to import labor to overcome the
shrinking work force.
There is a different development in Europe, the birthplace of the whole concept
of retirement, the birthing home of government-run social improvement programs
(as a byproduct of the Industrial Revolution). It was in Germany in the 1880s
where Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, attempting to out-fox the rival German Social
Democratic Party, came up with the idea of 65 years as a retirement age for the
employed. It was said that Bismarck figured that 65 years old was a safe year
to retire, as relatively few lived to that ripe old age.
Times have changed. Now, demographic changes are sweeping through the countries
of Europe where, as the New York Times reports, “A population that is both
living longer and producing fewer children is beginning to change some of the
fundamentals of both social and political life.”
These threatened fundamental changes have, for example, brought angry thousands
to street demonstrations protesting government moves to reduce their pensions,
which they regard as their birthright.
Observers predict that these demonstrations, massive as they are, are but forerunners
of feared social events, a sign of a historic demographic shift with profound
implications, not only for retirees but for the society as a whole. In Europe,
as in Japan, the population is not only aging, but shrinking as well. Its birthrate
continues to fall.
For example, in 1950, 30 percent of the German population was under 20 and only
2 percent was over 80. By 2050, the under-20s are expected to dip to 16 percent,
while the over-80s are estimated to shoot up to about 12 percent. At the present
in Germany, there are two workers for every retiree. In a short 25 years, it
is expected there will be but one worker for every retiree. This has deep implications
for not only the industrial output, but also for the tax base for pensions.
All these threatened demographic shifts are prompting a European fear that just
as the world is becoming ever more industrialized and economically competitive,
Europe will be having a less and less competitive work force. This also will
translate into less political power in world affairs.
Thus, in the same period, the United States should be able to maintain its global
dominance, with developing China as the only other possible world power — unless,
of course, Europe really unites.
Ted
Ruhig is well-known in Sacramento for his tireless advocacy for proposals
designed to help seniors live long, happy, full lives. He has held leadership
roles in several advocacy groups and on government advisory boards. Ruhig
once sued the California Department of Aging for age discrimination, and won!
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